Last year was the hottest year for the earth since weather observation. Abnormal weather conditions have occurred in many countries, with the global average temperature hitting a new high along with El Niño (reported by “Channel PNU” on September 1st, 2023). The climate crisis has a significant impact in all fields. Accordingly, experts say that the sense of crisis felt by voters due to the climate crisis, including abnormal temperatures, also affects the election results. The “climate-conscious voters” seem to be swaying due to the climate policies of candidates.

■Emergence of Climate-conscious Voters

Climate-conscious voters refer to voters who are aware of and sensitive to the climate agendas and consider voting based on them. Traditionally, topics such as inequality, poverty, and jobs have been the criteria for distinguishing political differences in elections. However, in the current situation where the climate crisis and various disasters are becoming serious, the climate crisis itself can be another criterion that shows differences in political positions.

Kim Soo-Jin (Prof. of Carbon Neutrality, Dankook University) said, “If climate-conscious voters can be influenced to become a force within the institutional political space of elections, they can effectively contribute as a political entity in civil society to address the climate crisis.” Prof. Kim adds, “In modern society, characterized by post-modern topics and numerous risks, they can emerge as a meaningful political force for future generations. This is evident when comparing them to the fragmented, depoliticized individual masses casting their votes based on populism, or to the traditional political subjects engaging in class voting based on economic foundations.”

The first climate elections were held in Norway on September 13th, 2021. At that time, Norway was the major oil producer, and oil drilling and production suspension was a big issue. The center-left opposition party achieved a regime change for the first time in eight years, focusing on reforming the energy industry and resolving economic polarization in response to the climate change. According to a report by The Chosun Ilbo, on September 15th, 2021, the Labour Party’s election pledge to produce alternative energy from wind power and natural gas was effective. They proposed alternatives to the oil industry that will be less important in the future, while actively responding to climate changes.

The general election in Germany on September 26th, 2021 was similar to that of Norway. According to a report by The Hankyoreh on September 24th, 2021, the core agenda of the German general election was “climate change.” All six major political parties chose climate-related policies as their priority in various presentations and speeches, transcending party politics. Experts say that the reason major political parties had no choice but to put climate-related pledges ahead is that floods in western Germany killed at least 180 people in July of the same year, and abnormal climate in Europe and North America has raised their citizens’ awareness of the climate crisis.

■The Upcoming US Presidential Election

The US presidential election to be held this year is considered to have a significant impact on global climate change response. With the likely rematch between President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, the two candidates show distinctly different stances on environmental and energy policies. As a result, there is a growing interest in how the US presidential election will affect the world’s decarbonization.

The biggest issue in their policies is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the core of so-called Bidenomics. The IRA is a law designed to ease soaring inflation in the US and is a representative policy that shows the Biden administration’s commitment to eco-friendliness. The key areas in which the IRA invests the most include subsidies, such as tax benefits, provided to electric vehicles assembled in North America. These subsidies aim to incentivize the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in response to climate change.

Shortly after taking office, Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement, which Trump withdrew from in his first year in office. And he also signed an executive order catalyzing America’s clean energy economy. The Paris Agreement was adopted at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, France, and aims to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5℃ or less compared to pre-industrial times.

On the other hand, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017, his first year in office, making the US the only country in the world to quit the agreement. It is publicly known that Trump is acting in opposition to the Biden administration in responding to the climate crisis. At the end of last year, Trump announced “Agenda 47” as a preliminary pledge for re-election. The main points include retreating the Paris Agreement, completely revising environmentally friendly subsidies implemented by the Biden administration, including the IRA, expanding fossil fuel mining in the US, easing regulations on fuel efficiency for automobiles, and abolishing regulations on mandatory sales of electric vehicles.

Experts predict that depending on whether Biden wins re-election or Trump retakes the White House, policies on climate change will go the opposite way. Robert E. Kelly (Prof. of Political Science and Diplomacy, PNU) said, “Biden accepts climate change and supports mitigation, such as promoting electric vehicles. Trump thinks climate change is a myth. He would do nothing. He’ll recommit to fossil fuels just out of spite.” Prof. Kim also said, “Compared to Democrats, who support the Green New Deal, the ideological distribution of Republicans is growthism and Trump’s Republican Party is more and more protectionist, which is likely to mobilize growthism and environmental destruction.”

Elections this year are held not only in the US but also in various parts of the European Union. According to a report by the US weekly magazine Time on December 28th, 2023, at least 64 countries, including the European Union, will hold national elections this year. The total population of these countries amounts to 49% of the world population.

However, it remains to be seen whether the emergence of climate-conscious voters will necessarily lead to effective policies. This is because it is necessary for specific measures aimed at overcoming the climate crisis to compete in elections and to establish solidarity as needed. However, achieving this is practically not easy. Prof. Kim said, “Each country may have more important issues at hand than the climate crisis. Especially in countries with serious livelihood issues, such as low-income families, the sensitivity to the climate crisis may not be exercised by votes in the election to have political influence.”

Reporter Kim Tae-Yi

Translated by Kim Tae-Yi